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Work Package 8
Abiotic processes, spatial information (GIS), synthesis and policy recommendations

The theme of the NCoE is adaptation via mitigation. We accept that temperatures in northern Fennoscandia will increase by 2 °C, at the very least. Given this, we try to find ways to reduce or eliminate the additional warming effects due to vegetation changes, and to minimize the negative effects of climate change on arctic-alpine biodiversity, on the aesthetic values of our mountain and tundra nature and on the livelihood of the reindeer herding Sámi. The results of WPs 1–7 must thus be integrated, summarized, and communicated to authorities responsible for the necessary political decisions and to representatives of the Sámi people.

To achieve this goal, we will analyze the expected consequences of different actions (including the do-nothing alternative) in a geographical framework. We will thus use the results of previous WPs as input variables in a GIS-model encompassing the arctic-alpine and subarctic-subalpine part of Nordic area of Sámi reindeer husbandry. With this approach we can estimate the loss of open tundra habitat and the additional warming effect due to vegetation changes under the do-nothing alternative and provide at least rough estimates on the expected impacts of different management options on different utilities.

Prof. Jukka Käyhkö, Univ. of Turku (jukkay[at]utu.fi)

Prof. Lauri Oksanen, Univ. of Turku (lauoks[at]utu.fi)

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    Keskitalo, E.C.H, Horstkotte, T., Kivinen, S., Forbes, B., and Käyhkö, J. (2015). "Generality of mis-fit"? The real-life difficulty of matching scales in an interconnected world. Accepted for publication in Ambio.

    Saccone P. and Virtanen R. (2015). Extrapolating multi-decadal plant community changes based on medium-term experiments can be risky: evidence from high-latitude tundra. Oikos. DOI: 10.1111/oik.02399.

    Stark, S. and Ylänne H. (2015). Grazing in Arctic peatlands – an unknown agent in the global carbon budget. Environmental Research Letters, 10: 051002. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/051002.

    Ylänne, H., Stark, S., and Tolvanen, A. (2015). Vegetation shift from deciduous to evergreen dwarf shrubs in response to selective herbivory offsets carbon losses: evidence from 19 years of warming and simulated herbivory in the sub-arctic tundra. Global Change Biology,  21: 3696–3711.

    Ruffino, L., Oksanen, T., Hoset, K.S., Tuomi, M., Oksanen, L., Korpimäki, E., Bugli, A., Hobson, K.A., Johansen, B., and Mäkynen A. (2015). Predator-rodent-plant interactions along a coast-inland gradient in Fennoscandian tundra. Ecography. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01758.

    Björkman, C. and Niemelä, P., eds. (2015). Climate Change and Insect Pests. CABI Climate Change Series 7. 279 pp.

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