Mauno Koivisto Lecture: Professor Gunnar Andersson

The annual Mauno Koivisto Lecture, organized by Turun korkeakoulujen yhteiskunnallis-taloudellinen tutkimusyhdistys ry, addresses a current economic or societal issue. The lecture series has been held since 2003.

This year the Mauno Koivisto Lecture is given by Professor Gunnar Andersson from Stockholm University with the title ”From relatively high to declining fertility rates: What happened in Sweden?”

The lecture is in english and is also available as a stream (Zoom-link).

Below is a written introduction to Professor Andersson’s lecture topic.

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This presentation attends to the research process and research findings on the falling birth rates of Sweden, a situation that is not far too different from that in Finland. Research at the Stockholm University Demography Unit has attended to the conundrum of the falling birth rates since around 2010. Based on analyses of Swedish register data, we are able to unravel the underlying structure of the fertility decline and demonstrate that the behavioral changes in terms childbearing are entirely due to declining propensities of childless people to become parents.

The decline in first-birth rates does not differ much across socio-economic groups or regions of Sweden. Moreover, the decline is not produced by a declining propensity to form new couples, but childless cohabiting people have become less prone to become a parent – and to marry. Furthermore, the decline in first-birth rates is not just an issue of postponed parenthood among young people, it extends to higher reproductive ages and will result in increasing fractions of women and men that will eventually remain childless. Our research reveals that factors that normally relate to changes in childbearing behavior, such as business cycles, changes in family policy or gender relations have no role in explaining current developments.

Survey data from the Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys show that the intentions to become a parent in the future have also declined. The analyses underline that subjective factors such as worries about different global uncertainties appear related to the intentions of having children. The development observed for Sweden is in no way unique to this country and a general conclusion is that changes in the subjective perceptions of the present and the future have helped fuel the fertility decline, regardless of any factual circumstances that are unique to Sweden.