At the University of Turku, a foresight process was carried out during 2023–2024 to explore alternative futures for the University. The process began with an analysis of the operating environment, which provided the basis for designing a Delphi study to be conducted at the University. We engaged 54 participants from across the University of Turku, representing different units and roles ranging from administrative staff to researchers and students. The Delphi statements concerned different aspects of the University, from research to teaching, from administration to infrastructure, as well as many other aspects of the University.
The project has been internationally unique, and its results were published in spring 2026 in the respected futures studies journal Futures. We have presented the results in various contexts, and they have attracted wide interest among stakeholders ranging from researchers to institutions. The Delphi study presented pairs of statements about the state of different aspects of the University in 2040. Respondents from the University were asked to assess the probability and desirability of the futures described by these statements. In addition, they were asked to comment on their answers – and these comments were central to the research results.
Probabilities and desirability – and their mirror-images
Among the most interesting findings was that the study identified statements that were seen as probable but undesirable and also statements that were seen as improbable but desirable.
Future states of the University that were considered probable but undesirable included ones in which the University is guided by market-driven research that mainly serves the economy; futures in which administration is highly centralized and units themselves can make hardly any decisions concerning their actions; futures in which private funding drives research; and futures in which there is very little face-to-face interaction.
On the other hand, futures considered unlikely but desirable included ones in which research is guided by curiosity; futures in which the University functions as an integrated part of the surrounding society; futures in which units have wide autonomy in decision-making; and futures in which public funding forms a strong foundation for the university’s operations.
Definitions and implementation matter
The study did not find simple mirror-image pairs of statements. One interesting view was that the desirability and likelihood of the University’s internationalization depends almost entirely on how international, in this context, is precisely defined and implemented. Internationalization was mainly seen as a positive part of the University’s operations, provided that the various conditions raised by respondents are met.
Different levels of agency
Finally, it is worth highlighting how the responses reflected – somewhat surprisingly, since this was not asked directly – where members of the University community feel they are able to have an impact, where their agency matters. Among other things, the development of interdisciplinarity, although it requires also institutional changes, was seen as something strongly influenced by the choices made by people in the University.
By contrast, administration and the funding basis of University operations were not seen as matters that the members of the University community can influence through their own actions. Thus, University community members see their own agency as varying in degree across different university-related issues and levels.
Veli Virmajoki
The author is a Docent and a Senior Researcher at the Finland Futures Research Centre. His research focuses on the futures of higher education, researchers, science, and work.
